NOM and Migration Levels
Net Overseas Migration (NOM) is the total gain or loss of the population through immigration to Australia and emigration from Australia. NOM includes both permanent and long-term (greater than 12 months) arrivals and departures. If the NOM predictions come true, it would be the lowest number since 1975-76. But if international borders do not re-open in January 2021, even the forecasted NOM may not be achieved. In case of prolonged border closures, net overseas migration will likely to continue the negative trend seen over April-June period of 2020. In addition, the 4,000 per week cap on international arrivals into Australia will put a further downward pressure on NOM figures over the six months from July to December 2020.
Migration levels are set annually during the budget process. However, due to the focus on the coronavirus pandemic, the 2020-21 Budget was deferred until October 2020. Although the existing 2019-20 Migration Program settings will continue to operate, it is anticipated that the government will consider changes to the Migration Program Planning Levels for 2020-21 due to the COVID-19 situation. During the the 2009-2010 Global Financial Crisis Australia had a smaller migration program in the period of recovery due to high unemployment and this may be the case again. However, there are also arguments that migration can play an important role in the post pandemic economic recovery. In either case, migration policies will be carefully adjusted and the size and the make-up of the migration program will largely depend on the economic conditions and labour market changes as well as the population growth objectives.
Invitation Rounds
The April 2020 Skillselect invitation round was the first after the closure of the Australian borders. The number of invites for 189 and 491 visas dropped just to 50 in each category while the two combined categories had over 2000 invites in March 2020.
Invitations issued* during 2019-20
- Visa Subclass
- Jul
- Aug
- Sep
- Oct
- Nov
- Dec
- Jan
- Feb
- Mar
- Apr
- May
- Jun
- Total
- 189
- 1,000
- 100
- 100
- 1,500
- 250
- 250
- 1,000
- 1,000
- 1,750
- 50
- 550
- 170
- 7,720
- 491
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 200
- 300
- 500
- 300
- 50
- 100
- 30
- 1,480
- 489
- 100
- 100
- 100
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 300
- Total
- 1,100
- 200
- 200
- 1,500
- 250
- 450
- 1,300
- 1,500
- 2,050
- 100
- 650
- 200
- 9,500
May and June invitation rounds prioritised applicants who were already in Australia and had occupations that are in high demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nurses and other medical professionals with at least 85 points on their EoI were invited, but many other occupations did not get an invite even with 90 points or more. However, in July 2020 engineering and agricultural professionals have also been invited apart from health workers. The non-medical occupations included civil, electrical, telecommunications, electronics, chemical and petroleum engineers as well as agricultural consultant. The cut-off mark for all July invites was 90 or more points.
It is expected that targeted invitation rounds will continue to focus on onshore applicants with skills which are in critical need and which will help Australia deal with the immediate and post recovery impacts of COVID-19. This is in line with the federal government’s intention to ensure that SkillSelect invitations are flexible and also consistent with public health measures. In a Q&A factsheet about migration program planning and delivery the Department of Home Affairs stressed that a carefully calibrated migration program will be an important part of Australia’s economic recovery and will create jobs and bring investment to help Australia rebound from COVID-19.
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